According to the 14th Amendment to the Constitution of the United States, Donald Trump is “automatically” disqualified from appearing on the ballot in the 2024 Presidential. According to Section 3 of the Amendment, no one can hold federal office who "having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States ... shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.”
Does Amendment 14 apply to Trump? He clearly fomented the insurrection against the United States, which reached fever pitch during the violent January 6th siege on the nation’s Capitol. His efforts continue to this day, fueled by Trump’s interminable assault on the nation’s institutions, aided by a small army of anti-democracy MAGA Republicans essentially posing as dutiful members of Congress. But he hasn’t been officially charged with insurrection, as opposed to the other 91 counts currently filed against him. That said, he’s already sidetracked from campaign activities — a defendant in multiple courtrooms.
Several states, which to-date include Michigan, New Hampshire, Arizona and Colorado, have either already begun, or are seriously considering, the process of disqualifying Trump from appearing on the 2024 ballot in those states, based on the 14th Amendment. As the current Republican front-runner, Trump’s exclusion from the ballot in even a few of these battleground states could easily affect the election’s outcome, even before any actual voting takes place.
Whether or not Trump should be disqualified from running for office is secondary to the actual, most significant impact of such a move — the ability of the High Court to save the GOP from itself. As Michigan Secretary of State Joceyn Benson, a Democrat, recently pointed out, “The bottom line is it’s not about us at all. It doesn’t matter what a secretary of state does because we expect the Supreme Court to be the final arbiter.” Her view is shared by other Secretaries of State currently considering Trump’s eligibility or ineligibility in their respective venues — This will end up being decided by the U.S. Supreme Court.
Could the Supreme Court possibly rule against Trump, taking him off the ballot in multiple states, and thus out of realistic contention as a candidate? Is that even conceivable, given the political make-up of the court? And if it were, what would that mean for Trump and the Republican party, not to mention the rest of the country?
Your first reaction is probably “No way. The Supremes are a 6-3 ultra-conservative majority, three of them having been appointed by Trump himself. How could they not rule in his favor!” It’s true, a ruling of ineligibility might seem inconceivable, just based on the court’s servitude to the dark-right forces that apparently drive its major decisions. Wouldn’t the Supremes want to avoid the MAGA backlash that would surely take place on the far-right?
Not necessarily. Why? Because a ruling against Trump would also result in extremely beneficial outcomes for the GOP, while possibly serving to fortify the extreme-right in the process. It may at first seem counter-intuitive, but consider the following:
By finding Trump ineligible to hold office based on the 14th Amendment, the high court will have essentially rid the GOP of their supremely flawed presidential candidate, in one fell swoop, while leaving the rest of MAGA-world (as well as it’s miserable momentum) intact, if not invigorated — by accomplishing what the GOP on its own has been unable to accomplish for the past 6+ years. If we’re to take Mitt Romney’s word for it, behind closed doors almost all Republicans in Congress have a profound distaste for Trump. However, for various reasons, including fear for their “personal safety,” nary a single elected Republican is willing to defy Trump publicly. They just can’t break free from the King of Chaos, for fear of personal consequences, as well as fear of losing support from Trump’s misguided “base” (pretty much all that’s left of what used to be the Republican party). The GOP alone can no longer rid itself of Trump, in spite of his reliable formula for losing election after election, court case after court case. But Trump has, for all intents and purposes, already served his purpose — inflaming the fear and division in our electorate, casting doubt on the value of democracy itself, and teeing up an opportunity for less-exposed GOP presidential candidates to carry the authoritarian torch into the next chapters of the American experiment. Permanent minority rule is what they’re after, and using the 14th Amendment, the Supreme Court can do the GOP’s dirty work for them, washing Trump to the sidelines, in an opportune ruling that re-positions the GOP as a vibrant force (for fascism, unfortunately), free of Trump baggage.
By ruling against Trump, the court will get to look like it is redeeming itself in the eyes of many Independent voters and perhaps some “undecideds” (that rare breed that just can’t tell its ass from a whole in the ground). It will clean some of the gangrene off the anti-choice, billionaire-financed “legacy" of the Roberts court. And legacy is about all it has left at this point. The court might even be able to appear unbiased on such an important issue, taking refuge in “upholding the Constitution” (specifically the 14th amendment). The Heritage Foundation will smile, the MAGA voter block may howl for a bit, but the MAGA insiders in Washington will rejoice, since their goal of institutionalizing fascism in America will no longer have to deal with the orange obstacle as their candidate. Trump can continue his grievances from courtroom to prison, keeping the MAGA sheeple whipped-up and angry, without jeopardizing the more strategic goal of permanently capturing the presidency, as well as initiating complete MAGA control of government operations across the country, by replacing thousands of government employees with MAGA loyalists (see Trump’s plan to reimpose Schedule F).
The GOP will be able to inauthenticly decry the “horrible” decision by the Supreme Court, while benefiting hugely from the decision itself. They will, in essence, be having their cake and eating it too — looking like Trump loyalists while ridding themselves of Trump the stage hog. At that point, all of the current Republican candidates for president (as well as others that may emerge) will be free to play to the Trump base, while benefiting from Trump’s absence in the race. No one will be able to blame any of the GOP candidates (or any Republicans at all, for that matter) for this outcome. The GOP will be shielded from the ire of both Trump and his supporters, because all of the blame for canceling Trump from the presidential contest will rest with the Supreme Court, thank you very much. Neat and tidy. Who could ask for more?
Should the 14th Amendment be invoked to disqualify Donald Trump from holding office again? In a perfect world, absolutely. He’s a menace to democracy worldwide and he’s already received far more preferential treatment as twice-impeached, four-time indicted coup leader and wannabe dictator than any other human could ever dream of. But the decision is not mine or yours to make, and we do not live in a perfect world. If and when this question ends up in front of the Supreme Court, the forces of justice may seemingly win a battle with Trump’s disqualification from holding office. But if that happens, it may at very least prolong the war for our democracy’s survival.
Perhaps there’s yet another scenario that unfolds when the Supreme Court ends up deciding the issue of Trump and the 14th Amendment. But in the meantime, we should be careful what we wish for.
(To participate in extended discussion and voting, this article also appears on my Daily Kos page)